Okay I’m getting a lot of requests for another election analysis update, so here goes… 

Last post we discussed how Mitt Romney faltered in the New Hampshire debate, and all of a sudden looked vulnerable.  One of his perceived strengths up to that point had been his debate performance.  He always stayed above the fray, looked presidential, and directed all his barbs against the president.

By his refusal to even deign to respond to his debate attackers, he furthered the meme of him as the forgone nominee who was simply humoring his futile challengers.  But when he got on the ropes in that NH debate, it opened a little chink in the armor. 

But Romney still won New Hampshire handily, Huntsman dropped out, and Mitt looked to be on cruise control again to win the nomination (and lose to President Obama in November).    

Then came debate stumble number two…

The only word you could use to describe Romney’s performance in the FOX debate on Monday night was faltering.  He got some tough questions from the moderators, and Perry, Santorum and Newt all attacked him early.  He seemed totally unprepared for the onslaught and his answers (or more accurately, his non-answers) were exceedingly halting and defensive.

They came after him on Bain, which he should have been able to parry with a memorable retort and diffuse immediately.  For Republican candidates to cast aspersions on Romney for making money turning around companies is like Donna Summer chastising the Bee Gees for making disco. (Which is exactly what he should had said to diffuse the whole ridiculous approach.) 

The whole attack reeked of desperation, cost Perry one of his top donors, and was ill advised from the get-go.  Romney should have been laying in wait, and able to score points on that easily.  Instead he looked like he never anticipated the question, hemmed & hawed, and just looked defensive. 

Then Perry got the crowd riled up by calling out Romney to release his taxes.  Now Mitt was totally defensive and even evasive.  The tracking polls of voters watching showed him in the red all night, but completely cratering at this point. 

Meanwhile, Ron Paul had a very good night.  He scored some very solid applause lines, weathered his position against gunslinger foreign policy pretty well in a tough crowd, and gave his supporters lots to feel good about.  Santorum had a good night, and Perry probably gave his best performance ever. 

But they all paled in comparison to Newt the Impaler! 

Gingrich simply stole the show.  He did something I have never seen in 30 years of watching debates; something that wasn’t completely apparent until it was revealed in the post-debate analysis. 

He got a standing ovation from virtually the entire crowd, and it lasted almost through the commercial break.  This is no small feat.  Tickets are allocated to each campaign equally for these debates.  So only 20 percent of the people in the crowd were Newt’s people, but 100 percent of them gave him a rousing ovation.  That simply doesn’t happen.

Newt was electrifying.  Or at least as electrifying as a rotund, grandfatherly-looking policy wonk can be.  But we are talking about Republicans here.

So what’s the bottom line?

Paul, Perry and Santorum did well, Newt did great, and Romney did horrible.  That means Romney wins. 

Huh?

Yes, Romney comes out the real winner, because with the other four all doing well, it keeps the conservative vote splintered.   He still slides off into the sunset with a win while the real conservatives squabble amongst themselves.  Or at least that’s what the Romney camp would like to believe. 

But not so fast, grasshopper…  What could change all that?

Thursday morning, the actual certification of the Iowa caucus will be reported, and it is quite possible Santorum will be the actual winner.   Now that would mean nothing as far as delegates are concerned, but it would definitely be the headline every 30 minutes on the news channels right up to debate time. (UPDATE: The results are in, and Santorum did win.  Like I said, it means nothing delegate-wise, but it helps take some sheen on the inevitability aura around Mitt.) 

In the meantime, in between time, the big Texas evangelical group endorsed Santorum.  So now Perry is dead man walking.  He’s talking a good game, but I predict he’ll place last in SC and dropout on Monday.  But hope spring eternal and he still probably believes he can resurrect himself with a breakout debate performance Thursday night in the CNN debate.  So he will be coming after Romney with a bazooka. (UPDATE: I overestimated Perry’s drive to come tonight.  He’s got a press conference in a few minutes and will dropout then.  That definitely helps Newt the most.)

Meanwhile Santorum also will be coming in with guns hot.  And Newt?  Newt will be arriving with TWO meat cleavers, one in each hand.   

Mitt needs a “moment!” 

He needs a witty rejoinder that parries off an attack and gets a big audience reaction.  A clip that will go viral on YouTube and be the excerpt that FOX News plays until Saturday mid morning.  Romney cannot come in to the debate with the strategy of playing not to lose.  He needs to do well.  If Mitt doesn’t have a moment…If he looks dodgy or guilty on the taxes…if Newt has another Rock Star performance…

Things will get really dicey for Mitt…

His whole claim of being the solid, steady hand that can beat the president starts to have more holes than Swiss cheese.  Newt will be crowing that it shows how vulnerable he is and will crumble against the Obama machine.  He’ll trumpet how he will chase the president around the country demanding the Lincoln/Douglas style debates. 

The 75 percent of the party who don’t really trust Romney to begin with will start to question the wisdom that he is the best nominee.  His flip-flopping on the issues keeps him from having a fervent, energized base like Newt, Santorum and Paul have.

If the whole news cycle from Thursday night until Saturday mid-morning is how Newt shined in the debate (and perhaps how Romney lost Iowa after all), Newt pulls an upstage win in South Carolina.  

And South Carolina always picks the Republican nominee…

Now you would think Florida is still likely safe for Romney.  It’s a huge state with 11 television markets that demand big money and organization.  Mitt has both, Newt has neither.  Romney’s had a commanding lead in the polls here.    But his biggest ace in the hole is Florida has early voting and it’s already started.  So those are big advantages for him. 

But nationally Romney’s lead over Newt has been evaporating in the daily tracking polls, and it’s logical to assume the same is happening in Florida.  The question is how many of his supporters his organization already got to vote. 

Because a strong showing in South Carolina would get Newt a bucket load of money.  He’s already started the drumbeat that a vote for Perry or Santorum is really a vote for Romney, which is really a vote for Obama.  It takes a lot of arrogance and chutzpah to try this, but Gingrich has an abundance of both.  And the beaches of the world are littered with the bleached bones of opponents who underestimated Newt in a fight of political maneuvering. 

You have to figure Newt will start calling in chips in the Republican establishment, asking leaders behind the scenes to pressure Santorum to drop out and unify the conservative vote.  And Newt is still regarded as a folk hero to many in the party, which gives him a lot of chips to call in.  Today on the stump he was using language all day about how many “conservatives come home.” 

The GOP may come to the conclusion that there really is one viable anti-Romney candidate after all. 

Newt could take his new found bucket load of money and buy some serious airtime in Florida.  Meanwhile the Perry, Santorum and his own Super-Pacs could all combine to pour about $10 million worth of attack ads against Romney in Florida. 

And this could be where Romney’s pandering to the Tea Party I mentioned last post comes back to haunt him…

Romney adopted a very mean-spirited immigration policy and Florida has a big enough Latin vote that it is conceivable it could put Newt over the top.  (Newt was already using language today about deporting grandmothers and Romney has painted himself into a corner with his strident stance.)  Ron Paul isn’t going away and will get lots of votes in Florida that Romney needs.

Even if Newt comes in a solid and credible second in Florida, it could signal to conservatives that he really could derail the Romney train.  Suddenly states like Michigan and Nevada where you would normally give the edge to Romney might come back into play. 

Just to keep it really interesting…

Perry probably endorses someone.  (Most likely will wink toward Newt at his press conference today.  Five percent more would be just what the doctor ordered for Newt.)  Cain and Bachmann probably do as well.  (Cain also is long-time fan of Newt, may decide this is his chance to get back on TV again.)  You can be sure Trump will do something stupid in his desperate desire to get in the limelight. 

The other big factor is Newt himself.  The biggest danger he faces is always himself.  He could pull off another Rock Star debate performance tonight or he could introduce a new plan to colonize Pluto.  And NBC is about to release an interview today with Newt’s second wife, which won’t look pretty. 

How does it all play out?  Only the campaign Gods know.  But the biggest factor is what happens tonight on the CNN debate.   This debate will greatly determine what happens Saturday.  And that greatly determines what happens from then on out.  

I’ll be glued to the TV.  Mitt needs a moment!

-RG